As housing's winning streak becomes a memory, rookies and veterans alike no longer can rely on sellouts and grand slams.
Source: BUILDER MagazineAh, the glory days of summer. Buyers camping out for new releases, backlogs stretching for months, and profits creeping higher and higher with every new phase that opens for sales.
Unfortunately, things have changed.
With starts down and cancellations up, builders no longer expect a home run with each new community. Now, they'll settle for base hits, for doubles, and even for walks that finally get that languishing spec house and its shrinking margins off the field. Veterans look at the rookies and shake their heads. “They've never been through a downturn,” they say, wise from years of ups and downs. “They'll never make it.”
The veterans are right, of course. Many of the rookies won't survive. “You didn't have to be a good builder” during the recent boom, says accountant Steve Maltzman of SMA Consulting in
But they won't all disappear. Some rookies will stay, seeing this down market as a rebuilding opportunity. Even a losing season offers the chance to improve skills, reduce on-field errors, and learn from those who have played the game for much longer.
And those rookies can surprise you. As you'll soon discover on the following pages, companies led by experts and novices alike made this year's Fast Track list of the 100 fastest-growing builders in the country, as based on their three-year compound annual growth rate for revenue. To many, the presence of so many newbies will be cause for serious head-shaking. After all, the first sign of a slump was supposed to send these young, inexperienced builders running.
Talk to them, though, and you'll discover that these new builders have ideas worth considering, no matter how many years you've been in the game. The veterans also have valuable advice to share. As a group, this year's Fast Track team achieved an average three-year compound annual growth rate of 36 percent between 2004 and 2006, even as a serious slump began for many in 2005.
PAY ATTENTION TO THE GAME
For Cassidy Homes, the first wake-up call came in 2002, with the arrival of big builders—both public and private—in neighboring counties. “It alarmed us, because we know big companies go in to grow market share at other builders' expense,” admits Steve Cassidy, president of the
But the yearly growth didn't make its president complacent. “We've been riding the wave since 1993. That's a 12-year run,” Cassidy says. “We knew the market was going to correct, so we kept a very close eye on model home traffic.” When those numbers dipped in 2005, Cassidy knew it was time to regroup and scheduled a company retreat to develop its plan of action.
At Sugar Magnolia Homes, which didn't even exist the year that Cassidy began bracing for the big builders, the warning signal came later, in summer 2006. “Presales just stopped coming in,” says Derek Pommerenck, president of theHe quickly sought more information from local real estate agents and got some bad news. “One of my communities was in deep trouble,” Pommerenck recalls. “There was a 12-month supply [of homes for sale] in there. I've still got 10 lots in [that development], but we haven't started any homes there.”
Despite such pullbacks—or perhaps because of them—Sugar Magnolia has continued to grow. Even in a rough market, the company projects closings to increase, with 30 deliveries planned for 2007 and 50 in 2008. (Revenues are projected to be $12 million and $20 million, respectively.)“The thing that we did was that we slowed down and stopped the specs,” Pommerenck says. “It made it harder cashflow-wise, but we don't have the standing inventory others do, so we'll recover faster than everyone else.”
For others, market trends presented new opportunities. InFollowing the NAHB's model green building guidelines,
WATCH THE SCORE
As important as market statistics are, though, they aren't the only figures that Fast Trackers follow. To survive a downturn and continue to grow, a smart player must be able to manage profit margins, sales velocity, backlogs, and more. “You've got to know your strengths and weaknesses. It's no different than a game; it's just the game of business,” says Jeff Bramble, COO of Triton Homes inBramble may be new to home building—he joined Triton two years ago—but he's an old hand at business. For 22 years, he worked in manufacturing, an experience surprisingly fitting for his current responsibilities as COO of a home building firm during a housing slump. “The product we're manufacturing, rather than being widgets, is homes,” Bramble says simply. And the slump? “Downturns in manufacturing are nothing new,” he replies.
At Triton, which is based nearThat ability to manage inventory levels qualifies as a crucial skill for this year's Fast Trackers. During the boom, builders boasted of their perpetually growing backlogs. In a downturn, though, standing inventory can destroy profit margins at speeds quicker than a major league pitcher can throw.
That's why Cassidy Homes moved fast to reduce its backlog when the slowdown hit. “We had a large backlog, and we wanted to make sure we delivered it,” Cassidy remembers. “We'd sold them at very high margins, and we did not want buyers to cancel or fall out.”Such scenarios also illustrate the importance of achieving the oft-recommended home building gross margins of 25 percent to 30 percent. Among other things, those targets allow a builder to cut prices to move inventory without sacrificing all profits.
Still, many longtime builders struggle to meet such benchmarks, as any industry consultant can tell you. But those who think it's impossible should consider the case of Pommerenck, who has increased Sugar Magnolia's gross margins by 2 to 3 percentage points annually for the past three years while the housing market has softened.One strategy used by this former member of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: setting profit-protecting margins of 28 percent to 30 percent on Sugar Magnolia's inventory homes. “We keep them on the market for a while, and then we drop [margin expectations] to 22 percent with room for negotiation,” Pommerenck says. “We try to offer options or upgrades because we don't want to affect the price.”
MIX IT UPPrice does matter in a down market, though, which is why several Fast Track builders have broadened their product line. “In a down market, we knew that price was going to be what sells,” says Cassidy. “So we created an entry-level concept priced from $170,000 to $250,000. It proved to be a good decision to keep sales moving forward.”
InOther Fast Trackers are going even further in pursuit of diversity. In
KEEP PRACTICING
When Fast Trackers aren't establishing new revenue sources, they're concentrating on improving their business practices. “I still have 75 percent of my staff, and I need to keep them busy,” Cassidy says. “So we're streamlining our systems and procedures.”For some Fast Trackers, that means back-office improvements. Cassidy Homes is automating its accounts payable process for trade contractors. Triton is slicing cycle times and organizing operations for maximum efficiency. “One of our core values is system solutions and repeatable processes in every phase of building homes,” Bramble explains. “It's served us well. We're becoming more and more efficient.”
Triton certainly is, moving to a 65-day production cycle at its newest developments in Northwest Arkansas (down from Triton's 75-day target) and restructuring processes so that a superintendent can manage three to five communities, rather than just one as in the past.Such efforts represent smart investments in a company's future, according to Maltzman. “Now that it's slow, you really have to get back to basics. It makes sense to keep personnel on to implement systems so that when the market turns, your systems are tight.”
SURVIVE A LOSING SEASONAh, the upswing. Fast Trackers, regardless of whether they've built a handful of homes or hundreds, are as eager as any other builder for the housing market to rebound.
Unlike their counterparts, though, these Fast Trackers never forgot that housing is a cyclical business, no matter what the big builders say, and they planned accordingly. A housing recession is “always worse than you've ever planned for,” Alloy says. “Fear in planning is good. Fear in planning keeps you alive.”Alloy has decades of home building experience, but even rookies who have known nothing but the boom say they have done their best to safeguard their firms against a housing bust.
“Veterans have done the same thing, only in more sophisticated ways, to ensure liquidity at their companies. “In 1991–1995, we realized the first thing that we did not have was money. All the banks had shut down,” remembers Alloy, then in his twenties. Now Stanley Martin's chief executive, he was determined to avoid a replay of that scenario. “During good times, raise as much money as you can,” says Alloy, whose firm obtained $150 million in 10-year bonds and a $150 million syndicated line of credit in recent years. “Now we're in a terrible recession, with millions and millions of dollars at our disposal. It's a comfortable place to be, and it keeps you from making a dumb decision for cash reasons.”
Fast Trackers have relied on simpler tactics as well. Mungo, for example, has opted to limit leverage and build equity in his company instead. “You've heard of OPM? That stands for ‘other people's money,' and when things turn down, those people want that money back.”That certainly represents a conservative strategy, especially given the ready capital and record-breaking home sales of the recent boom, but that's just fine with Mungo, who plans to manage his company and its growth for years to come. “No one ever went broke preparing for a recession,” the veteran builder points out. “I've worked way too hard to give it all back to my creditors at the first downturn.”
Alison Rice is a freelance writer based in Arlington, Va.